Countries by Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism: Percentile Rank, Upper Bound of 90% Confidence Interval

Ranking 2023

Values shown in %.

Analysis

This metric reports the upper bound of the 90% confidence interval for each country's percentile rank on the Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism indicator, expressed as a percentage from 0 to 100, where higher values indicate better outcomes. The indicator is drawn from the World Bank's Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI), indicator code PV.PER.RNK.UPPER, using 2023 data. According to the source: 'Good governance is essential for development. It helps countries improve economic growth, build human capital, and strengthen social cohesion. Empirical evidence shows a strong causal relationship between better governance and better development outcomes. The Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) are designed to help researchers and analysts assess broad patterns in perceptions of governance acros.' The dataset covers 205 countries, all of which have data from the last seven years, and 100% of datapoints are classified as official. No extreme outliers were identified using a 3-standard-deviation threshold. The average year-over-year change across the dataset is 8.9%, indicating moderate but not extreme volatility.

The top of the ranking is dominated by small territories and island nations alongside a handful of larger, stable states. American Samoa, Andorra, Aruba, Brunei Darussalam, the Cayman Islands, Greenland, Liechtenstein, and Singapore all share rank 1 with a score of 100%. New Zealand ranks 9th at 99.53%, and Iceland ranks 14th at 98.58%. Switzerland ranks 24th at 97.63%. Among larger economies, Japan ranks 35th at 95.73%, Australia ranks 43rd at 95.26%, and Canada ranks 49th at 93.84%. These placements at the top reflect consistently high upper-bound confidence interval values, meaning that even accounting for measurement uncertainty, these countries score well.

The middle of the ranking shows considerable geographic and political diversity. The United States ranks 106th at 55.92%, placing it below countries such as Namibia (rank 76, 79.62%), Suriname (rank 81, 74.88%), and Cuba (rank 82, 74.41%). France ranks 89th at 70.14% and Spain ranks 91st at 68.25%. In the lower half, Brazil ranks 145th at 43.13%, India ranks 159th at 35.55%, and China ranks 152nd at 40.28%. Toward the bottom, Russia ranks 177th at 17.54%, Ukraine ranks 181st at 13.27%, and Israel also ranks 181st at 13.27%. The lowest-scoring large states include Pakistan at rank 191 (8.53%), Nigeria at rank 189 (10.90%), and Ethiopia at rank 191 (8.53%). Yemen ranks 203rd at 3.79%, just above Mali and Syria at rank 204 with 2.84%.

As an upper-bound confidence interval measure rather than a point estimate, this metric tends to overstate stability relative to the central estimate, particularly for countries with high measurement uncertainty. Because the indicator is based on perceptions of governance, it may not capture rapid on-the-ground changes within a given year. Small territories and dependent jurisdictions, which make up a notable share of the top ranks, may benefit from low population sizes and limited exposure to the types of conflict measured, which can affect cross-country comparability. The indicator aggregates multiple perception-based sources, so country scores can reflect differences in data availability or source composition rather than solely underlying conditions.

Methodology

Data are drawn from the World Bank World Development Indicators, indicator code PV.PER.RNK.UPPER, for the reference year 2023. The metric represents the upper bound of the 90% confidence interval for each country's percentile rank on the Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism dimension of the Worldwide Governance Indicators. The source note states: 'Good governance is essential for development. It helps countries improve economic growth, build human capital, and strengthen social cohesion. Empirical evidence shows a strong causal relationship between better governance and better development outcomes. The Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) are designed to help researchers and analysts assess broad patterns in perceptions of governance acros.' The dataset covers 205 countries, exceeding the 80-country coverage threshold. All 205 countries (100%) have data from the last seven years, and 100% of datapoints are classified as official quality, exceeding the 70% threshold. No extreme outliers were identified at the 3-standard-deviation level. The average year-over-year change is 8.9%, well below the 50% volatility threshold. Values range from 2.84% (Mali, Syrian Arab Republic) to 100% (American Samoa, Andorra, Aruba, Brunei Darussalam, Cayman Islands, Greenland, Liechtenstein, Singapore), a spread of 3,416.7%. Units are percentile rank (%), where higher values are better.

Sources

• World Bank