Countries by Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism: Percentile Rank, Lower Bound of 90% Confidence Interval

Ranking 2023

Values shown in %.

Analysis

This metric reports the lower bound of the 90% confidence interval for a country's percentile rank on the Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism indicator, expressed as a percentage. Higher values indicate greater political stability. The indicator draws on the Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI), a research dataset summarizing the views on the quality of governance provided by a large number of enterprise, citizen and expert survey respondents in industrial and developing countries. Governance consists of the traditions and institutions by which authority in a country is exercised. This includes the process by which governments are selected, monitored, and replaced; the capacity of the government to effectively formulate and implement sound policies; and the respect of citizens and the state for the institutions that govern economic and social interactions. The dataset covers 205 countries with data for 2023, all classified as official-quality data, and no extreme outliers were identified using a 3-standard-deviation threshold. The metric uses indicator code PV.PER.RNK.LOWER and reports values in percent.

The top of the ranking is dominated by small territories and island states. Liechtenstein leads at 94.79%, followed by the Cayman Islands at 94.31% and Andorra at 91.94%. Singapore is the highest-ranked sovereign state with a population exceeding one million, at rank 4 with 89.57%. New Zealand (rank 5, 86.73%) and Iceland (rank 9, 76.30%) are the top-ranked larger democracies. Switzerland ranks 20th at 70.14%, and Luxembourg also sits at rank 16 with 70.14%. Among Pacific island nations, Tuvalu (rank 11, 74.88%), Marshall Islands (rank 13, 71.56%), and Samoa (rank 16, 70.14%) score notably high, reflecting low conflict exposure in those territories.

The middle of the ranking reveals several counterintuitive placements. The United States ranks 103rd at 35.07%, alongside Montenegro at the same value. The United Kingdom ranks 74th at 51.18%, and France ranks 89th at 45.50%. Israel ranks 181st at 7.11%, placing it alongside Ukraine and Haiti at identical values, which reflects conditions captured in the 2023 data year. Russia ranks 177th at 9.48%. Brazil ranks 137th at 17.54%, the same percentile as Indonesia, North Korea, and Morocco. Chile ranks 100th at 38.39%, while neighboring Argentina sits at rank 115 with 26.07%, a notable gap between two South American economies of comparable size. Rwanda ranks 101st at 36.49%, placing it above many larger regional economies.

Several limitations apply to this metric. The value reported is the lower bound of the 90% confidence interval, not the point estimate itself, which means rankings reflect a conservative floor rather than a central measure of stability. Countries with similar lower-bound values are assigned the same rank, producing many ties throughout the table. The underlying data aggregates perceptions from enterprise surveys, citizen surveys, and expert assessments, meaning it captures reported views rather than directly observed events. Survey coverage and methodology may differ across countries, potentially affecting comparability. The average year-over-year change in values is 14.1%, indicating meaningful volatility in rankings over time, and a single year's result may not represent a stable long-run position for individual countries.

Methodology

The metric is Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism: Percentile Rank, Lower Bound of 90% Confidence Interval, indicator code PV.PER.RNK.LOWER, sourced from the World Bank World Development Indicators using 2023 data. Values are expressed as a percentage (0 to 100), where higher is better. The underlying data comes from the Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI), a research dataset summarizing the views on the quality of governance provided by a large number of enterprise, citizen and expert survey respondents in industrial and developing countries. Governance consists of the traditions and institutions by which authority in a country is exercised. This includes the process by which governments are selected, monitored, and replaced. Coverage includes 205 countries, all with data from within the last 7 years (100% recency), and 100% of datapoints are classified as official quality, exceeding the 70% threshold. No extreme outliers were detected using a 3-standard-deviation threshold. The value range spans 0.00% to 94.79%, a spread of approximately 999%. The average year-over-year change is 14.1%, below the 50% volatility threshold. Because this metric reports a confidence interval lower bound rather than a point estimate, it systematically understates each country's central stability estimate and should be interpreted accordingly.

Sources

• World Bank