Countries by Mortality rate, adult, male (per 1,000 male adults)

Ranking 2023

Analysis

This metric measures the probability that a 15-year-old male will die before reaching age 60, expressed per 1,000 male adults, given the age-specific mortality rates of the reference year. The World Bank defines it as follows: 'Adult mortality rate, male, is the probability of dying between the ages of 15 and 60 — that is, the probability of a 15-year-old male dying before reaching age 60, if subject to age-specific mortality rates of the specified year between those ages.' The indicator code is SP.DYN.AMRT.MA, drawn from the World Bank World Development Indicators for 2023. Coverage is broad: 216 countries are included, 215 of which (99.5%) have data from the last seven years, and 100% of datapoints are classified as official. The ranking identified 22 extreme outliers at the 3-sigma threshold, and values range from 31.2 to 470.6, a spread of over 1,400%.

The ten highest-ranked countries are concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa and conflict-affected territories. Lesotho leads at 470.6, followed by Central African Republic (393.5, rank 2), Nauru (386.0, rank 3), Chad (379.6, rank 4), and Zimbabwe (366.0, rank 5). West Bank and Gaza ranks 6th at 365.5, and Nigeria (356.4), South Sudan (356.2), and Kenya (356.1) follow closely at ranks 7, 8, and 9. Eswatini ranks 10th at 348.9, and South Africa ranks 11th at 327.2. Beyond Africa, the Russian Federation (301.0, rank 19) and Ukraine (300.0, rank 20) are the only non-African, non-Pacific-island countries in the top 20, both with values exceeding 300.

In the middle of the ranking, several notable placements stand out. Bulgaria ranks 55th at 234.4 and Belarus ranks 57th at 231.3, placing these European countries well above the global midpoint. The United States ranks 125th at 146.9, while countries such as Germany (rank 175, 85.0) and France (rank 170, 88.4) rank considerably lower. Among counterintuitive entries, Nauru (rank 3, 386.0) and Tuvalu (rank 15, 312.8) are small Pacific island nations with rates comparable to the most affected sub-Saharan African countries, making them extreme outliers flagged in the data. At the lower end, Qatar ranks 215th at 35.5 and Monaco ranks last at 31.2, with several Gulf states and small European territories clustered near the bottom.

This metric captures only mortality probability between ages 15 and 60 and does not reflect causes of death, child mortality, or deaths above age 60. Rates are modeled projections based on age-specific mortality data for the reference year, not direct observations, so they are sensitive to the quality and completeness of underlying vital registration systems. Countries with weak civil registration infrastructure may have less reliable estimates. The metric also does not distinguish between peacetime and conflict conditions within the reference year, nor does it account for emigration or population composition effects. Small-population territories such as Nauru, Tuvalu, and Monaco can show extreme or volatile values due to their small demographic base, and caution is warranted when interpreting their rankings.

Methodology

Data are sourced from the World Bank World Development Indicators, indicator SP.DYN.AMRT.MA, for the reference year 2023. The metric is defined verbatim as: 'Adult mortality rate, male, is the probability of dying between the ages of 15 and 60 — that is, the probability of a 15-year-old male dying before reaching age 60, if subject to age-specific mortality rates of the specified year between those ages.' The unit is the probability per 1,000 male adults. The ranking covers 216 countries. Of these, 215 (99.5%) have data from within the last seven years, and 205 of 216 (94.9%) report data from the latest year (2023). All 216 datapoints (100%) are classified as official-quality. The dataset contains 22 extreme outliers identified at the 3-sigma threshold. Values range from 31.2 (Monaco) to 470.6 (Lesotho), a spread of approximately 1,408%. Average year-over-year change across the dataset is 5.6%, well within the 50% volatility threshold. Modeled estimates are used where vital registration data are incomplete, and rankings for small-population territories should be interpreted with caution.

Sources

• World Bank