Countries by Lifetime risk of maternal death (1 in: rate varies by country)

Ranking 2023

Analysis

This metric measures the lifetime risk of maternal death, expressed as a 1-in-X probability. The World Bank defines it as follows: 'Life time risk of maternal death is the probability that a 15-year-old female will die eventually from a maternal cause assuming that current levels of fertility and mortality (including maternal mortality) do not change in the future, taking into account competing causes of death.' A higher value is better, indicating a lower probability of dying from a maternal cause. Data come from the World Bank World Development Indicators under indicator code SH.MMR.RISK, with a reference year of 2023. Coverage is strong: 194 countries are included, all with data from within the last 7 years, and 100% of data points are classified as official. The viability check identified 38 extreme outliers using a 3-standard-deviation threshold, and the value range spans from 24 to 96,213, a spread of over 400,000%.

The top of the ranking is dominated by European countries and high-income economies. Belarus leads at rank 1 with a value of 96,213, followed by Norway (rank 2, 60,475) and Poland (rank 3, 58,680). South Korea (rank 4, 43,501), Spain (rank 5, 38,118), and Japan (rank 6, 35,149) round out the top six. Other high-ranking countries include Czechia (rank 7, 31,604), Australia (rank 10, 28,182), Germany (rank 14, 21,635), and Sweden (rank 19, 18,753). These countries have very low lifetime maternal death probabilities, reflecting low maternal mortality ratios and fertility rates in the underlying data.

The middle of the ranking shows considerable variation across regions. The United States ranks 61st with a value of 4,161, placing it well below many comparable high-income countries such as Canada (rank 51, 6,911) and the United Kingdom (rank 46, 8,751). India sits at rank 117 with a value of 645. Countries in sub-Saharan Africa cluster at the bottom: Nigeria ranks 192nd with a value of 25, Somalia ranks 191st with 30, and Afghanistan ranks 189th with 40. North Macedonia (rank 8, 29,386) and the United Arab Emirates (rank 9, 29,127) appear notably high relative to regional peers, which is visible in the data without further external explanation. Venezuela ranks 145th with a value of 234, placing it below many lower-income neighbors.

Several limitations apply to this metric. The measure assumes current fertility and mortality conditions remain constant, which is an explicit modeling assumption and not a forecast. Countries with incomplete civil registration or maternal death surveillance may have less reliable underlying maternal mortality estimates, which feed directly into this indicator. Small island states and territories such as Palau (rank 112, 753), Tuvalu (rank 151, 185), and Nauru (rank 163, 117) have very small populations, meaning their estimates can be volatile. Puerto Rico (rank 34, 11,432) appears as a separate entry despite being a U.S. territory, and San Marino (rank 26, 15,473), Andorra (rank 38, 10,866), and Monaco (rank 39, 10,688) are microstates where small absolute numbers of births and deaths can produce unstable estimates. The viability check flagged 38 extreme outliers at the 3-sigma level, suggesting the distribution is heavily skewed and that comparisons across the full range should be made with caution.

Methodology

The metric is the lifetime risk of maternal death, sourced from the World Bank World Development Indicators under indicator code SH.MMR.RISK, with data year 2023. The World Bank defines it as: 'Life time risk of maternal death is the probability that a 15-year-old female will die eventually from a maternal cause assuming that current levels of fertility and mortality (including maternal mortality) do not change in the future, taking into account competing causes of death.' Values are expressed as absolute 1-in-X figures; higher values indicate lower lifetime risk and are ranked as better. The dataset covers 194 countries, all with data from within the last 7 years (100% recency), and 100% of data points are classified as official quality. The viability check identified 38 extreme outliers at a 3-standard-deviation threshold. The value range spans 24 (Chad, Central African Republic) to 96,213 (Belarus), representing a spread of approximately 400,788%. Average year-over-year change across the dataset is 17.8%, within the 50% volatility threshold. No microstates under 1 million population were excluded from this dataset.

Sources

• World Bank