Countries by Adjusted savings: carbon dioxide damage (current US$)

Ranking 2021

Analysis

This metric measures the cost of damage due to carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel use and the manufacture of cement. As defined in the source data: 'Cost of damage due to carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel use and the manufacture of cement, estimated to be US$40 per ton of CO2 (the unit damage in 2017 US dollars for CO2 emitted in 2020) times the number of tons of CO2 emitted. This indicator is expressed in current prices, meaning no adjustment has been made to account for price changes over time.' Values are absolute totals in current US dollars, not per capita figures. The dataset covers 209 countries, with 208 of 209 (99.5%) reporting data from the last seven years and 100% of datapoints classified as official quality. The 2021 data year provides broad and recent coverage, though 22 extreme statistical outliers were identified at the 3-sigma threshold.

The top of the ranking is dominated by large economies with heavy industrial and energy sectors. China (rank 1) at $482,501,204,650 accounts for a sum larger than the next three countries combined: the United States (rank 2, $210,317,902,107), India (rank 3, $107,594,067,535), and the Russian Federation (rank 4, $76,340,677,318). Japan ranks 5th at $45,384,463,483. Iran (rank 6, $31,122,747,018), Germany (rank 7, $27,645,558,505), Indonesia (rank 8, $27,429,444,391), South Korea (rank 9, $27,293,273,784), and Canada (rank 10, $25,295,279,066) round out the top ten. Higher absolute values in this metric follow directly from higher total CO2 emissions, since the damage figure is a fixed multiplier applied to emissions volume.

Notable patterns appear in the middle of the ranking. South Africa (rank 14, $19,069,010,758) scores higher than much larger economies by population, reflecting its coal-intensive energy sector. Viet Nam (rank 17, $16,822,516,857) places ahead of the United Kingdom (rank 18, $13,400,565,395) and France (rank 21, $12,647,501,343). Kazakhstan (rank 27, $8,713,723,746) ranks higher than Spain (rank 25, $9,664,158,533) is incorrect; Spain ranks 25th at $9,664,158,533 and Kazakhstan 27th at $8,713,723,746, placing Kazakhstan below Spain but above the United Arab Emirates (rank 28, $8,013,108,397). At the lower end, small island states such as Kiribati (rank 207, $4,484,153), Nauru (rank 208, $2,607,668), and Tuvalu (rank 209, $434,736) record values that are a tiny fraction of even mid-table countries.

Because this metric uses absolute values rather than per-capita or GDP-normalized figures, large countries with high emissions volumes will always rank highly regardless of their emissions efficiency. The fixed valuation of $40 per ton is a single global estimate and does not reflect geographic variation in actual damage costs. The metric covers only CO2 from fossil fuel combustion and cement manufacture, excluding other greenhouse gases and land-use emissions entirely. Countries with significant deforestation-related emissions are therefore underrepresented. The indicator is expressed in current prices with no inflation adjustment, which can affect comparisons across years but is consistent within this 2021 cross-section.

Methodology

Indicator: NY.ADJ.DCO2.CD. Source: World Bank World Development Indicators. Data year: 2021. The metric is defined as follows in the source note: 'Cost of damage due to carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel use and the manufacture of cement, estimated to be US$40 per ton of CO2 (the unit damage in 2017 US dollars for CO2 emitted in 2020) times the number of tons of CO2 emitted. This indicator is expressed in current prices, meaning no adjustment has been made to account for price changes over time.' Unit: absolute current US dollars; higher values indicate greater total CO2 damage. Country count: 209. Coverage: 208 of 209 countries (99.5%) have data from the last seven years; 208 of 209 (99.5%) report data for 2021. Data quality: 100% of datapoints are classified as official. Statistical note: 22 extreme outliers were identified at the 3-sigma threshold, driven largely by the top-ranked emitters. Average year-over-year change across the dataset is 9.0%. The range runs from $434,736 (Tuvalu, rank 209) to $482,501,204,650 (China, rank 1), a spread of over 110,987,063%.

Sources

• World Bank