Countries by External debt stocks (% of GNI)

Ranking 2024

Values shown in %.

Analysis

External debt stocks as a percentage of GNI measures total outstanding debt owed to non-residents as a ratio of a country's annual income from all sources (domestic and international). This ratio is more important than absolute debt for assessing sustainability. A country owing $100 billion with $500 billion GNI ($100B ÷ $500B = 20%) can feasibly repay debt through tax revenue and export earnings. One owing $1 billion with $2 billion GNI (50%) is relatively more burdened. When this ratio exceeds 50%, the country is typically considered moderately debt-stressed; above 100%, debt becomes unsustainable without debt relief or restructuring. Mozambique at 350.6% means it owes three-and-a-half years' worth of national income—clearly unsustainable. This metric matters because high debt burdens force governments to choose between debt service and spending on health, education, or infrastructure. Year-over-year volatility averages 11.2%, indicating that debt burdens fluctuate through new borrowing, repayment, currency movements, and GNI growth or contraction. Data coverage is 91.7% for 2024 (110 of 120 countries).

The most debt-stressed countries are concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa and small island economies. Mozambique (350.6%, rank 1) and Lebanon (331.6%, rank 2) are in crisis territory—debt restructuring is inevitable. Mongolia (181.9%, rank 3), Senegal (150.7%, rank 4), and Suriname (129.1%, rank 5) are also severely burdened. Smaller African nations and island economies rank prominently in the top 20: Zambia (114.2%, rank 9), Rwanda (93.9%, rank 12), Jordan (90.1%, rank 13), Djibouti (83.8%, rank 15), and Nicaragua (82.8%, rank 16). By stark contrast, large developing economies appear low on the list despite massive absolute debt: China (13.0%, rank 114), India (18.6%, rank 106), and Russia (16.8%, rank 109) rank in the bottom-quarter because their GNI is enormous. Argentina (39.1%, rank 71) ranks mid-range, indicating moderate stress despite $242 billion in absolute debt. Sanctioned and isolated economies rank lowest: Iran (2.2%, rank 120), Algeria (2.7%, rank 119), and Turkmenistan (5.2%, rank 117) have low external debt ratios because restricted credit access prevents them from borrowing internationally.

Several large emerging markets rank surprisingly low despite substantial absolute debt because GNI growth outpaces debt accumulation. China (13.0%) and India (18.6%) manage large debts through rapid economic growth; their GNI grows faster than debt. Conversely, smaller countries with modest absolute debts rank high because their limited GNI cannot absorb even moderate borrowing. Botswana (11.9%, rank 115) and Iraq (6.2%, rank 116) have relatively healthy debt ratios despite Sub-Saharan and Middle Eastern contexts. Volatility (11.2%) reflects that debt ratios change through repayment cycles, new borrowing, economic growth, and currency movements. Countries affected by conflict (Ukraine at 101.3%, rank 11; Afghanistan at 19.9%, rank 105) show high volatility due to war-driven changes in borrowing and GNI. The extreme outliers (Lebanon 331.6%, Mongolia 181.9%) reflect either chronic debt accumulation or currency collapse dramatically raising the ratio.

This metric measures external debt relative to income, not actual repayment capacity. A country at 50% may easily repay if it exports commodities; another at 50% may be stressed if it depends on declining industries. GNI is gross national income (includes income earned abroad by nationals), not necessarily government tax revenue—government capacity to repay depends on tax collection rates, which vary widely. Additionally, debt composition matters: a country owing debt to the IMF on concessional terms (lower interest, longer repayment) is less stressed than one owing at commercial rates, but both count equally in this metric. Currency effects distort year-over-year comparisons dramatically—if a country's currency weakens against the dollar, both external debt (in dollars) and GNI (in local currency) move in opposite directions, making the ratio volatile. Finally, GNI estimates for countries with large informal economies or weak statistical capacity may be unreliable, leading to overstated or understated debt ratios.

Methodology

External debt stocks as a percentage of GNI is calculated as: (total external debt in current US dollars) ÷ (gross national income in current US dollars) × 100. Total external debt includes public, publicly guaranteed, and private nonguaranteed long-term debt, IMF credit, and short-term debt (original maturity ≤1 year). GNI is the sum of value added by residents in all sectors plus net primary income from abroad. Data comes from the World Bank's World Development Indicators (indicator: DT.DOD.DECT.GN.ZS), compiled from debtor country reports, IMF International Financial Statistics, and World Bank estimates. All figures are in current US dollars. The metric covers 120 countries with 100% data quality and 91.7% coverage for 2024. The mean external debt ratio is 56.07% with a standard deviation of 47.88%, indicating a wide range of debt stress levels. Twenty-three extreme outliers were detected (Lebanon, Mongolia, and other crisis cases), reflecting severe debt distress. Year-over-year volatility averages 11.2%, reflecting changes in debt, GNI growth, and currency effects. The 15,743% spread (from 2.21% to 350.57%) captures the full spectrum from low-stress to unsustainable debt burdens.

Sources

• World Bank