Countries by Public and publicly guaranteed debt service (% of exports of goods, services and primary income)

Ranking 2024

Values shown in %.

Analysis

Public and publicly guaranteed debt service (% of exports) measures the portion of a country's export earnings consumed by principal repayments and interest payments on long-term public and publicly guaranteed external debt. "Publicly guaranteed" means loans taken by private entities but guaranteed by the government—making them a contingent liability on the public budget. This ratio is one of the most critical indicators of external debt sustainability: if debt service exceeds 25% of exports, a country is entering dangerous territory; above 35%, refinancing becomes fragile; above 50%, default risk becomes acute. Why it matters: a country earning $100 million in exports but owing $57 million in annual debt service has essentially no fiscal space for development, healthcare, infrastructure, or to absorb economic shocks. By contrast, if debt service is 1% of exports, the country can freely direct export revenues to economic diversification, investment, and poverty reduction. This metric reveals whether a country can actually afford its debt, whereas nominal debt stocks (measured in dollars) do not account for export capacity. Haiti's 57.2% reveals insolvency; Algeria's 0.19% reveals comfortable solvency.

High debt-service-to-exports ratios cluster in three regions: conflict-affected states in Africa (Haiti, Egypt, Pakistan), resource-dependent economies in transition (Angola), and small island economies (Tonga, Dominica). Haiti ($57.2%, rank 1) is an extreme outlier—it has minimal export capacity (largely agricultural, remittance-dependent) but carries legacy debt from colonial indemnities, occupations, and structural adjustment loan accumulation. Egypt ($36.3%, rank 2) has moderate exports but faces heavy debt service due to currency devaluation (the Egyptian pound has weakened, raising dollar-denominated debt burdens in pound terms). Pakistan ($27.2%, rank 3), Angola ($26.2%, rank 4), El Salvador ($25.4%, rank 5), and Kenya ($25.4%, rank 6) share similar profiles: growing debt loads combined with export bases vulnerable to commodity price swings or manufacturing competitiveness declines. Small islands (Tonga 24.6%, Dominica 23.3%) rank high because they have limited export bases and have borrowed heavily for post-disaster reconstruction. By contrast, countries with low ratios cluster among resource exporters or developed economies: Algeria ($0.19%, rank 114) has vast oil exports; Guyana ($0.71%, rank 113) is an emerging oil exporter; Thailand ($0.91%, rank 112) has established export-driven manufacturing. Mid-range countries (5–7% of exports) have balanced debt loads and export capacity—Suriname, Kazakhstan, Rwanda, Guatemala, Mexico, Ukraine, Zambia, Peru all sustain moderate debt service without fiscal stress.

This metric is highly volatile (37.7% year-over-year average change), not because governments change their debt payments—those are contractually fixed—but because export earnings fluctuate with commodity prices, exchange rates, and global demand. Angola's debt service ratio swings dramatically when oil prices fall: during commodity booms, exports surge and the ratio falls; during commodity slumps, exports plummet and the ratio rises, sometimes crossing unsustainable thresholds. Algeria's low ratio ($0.19%) reflects both minimal external debt and enormous oil export revenues, but a global oil price collapse could push the ratio upward. Egypt's 36.3% is partly inflated by the 2016 Egyptian pound devaluation (making dollar debts more expensive relative to pound-denominated exports). Senegal ranks 10th ($16.7%) despite manageable absolute debt levels, because its agricultural and fishing exports are modest and volatile. Notably, some countries with high nominal debt rank low on this metric because they export heavily: Guyana ($0.71%, rank 113) carries $22.5 billion in World Bank reconstruction loans (rank 2 globally in debt stocks), but ranks 113th here because its booming oil sector (ramped up post-2020) generates $8–12 billion in annual exports, making debt service a tiny percentage. This illustrates the superiority of this metric over nominal stocks for assessing true solvency.

This metric depends on accurate export data and debt-service reporting, both problematic in fragile states. Many developing countries underreport non-concessional private debt (loans from China, Middle Eastern funds, private creditors), inflating the true debt-service burden relative to what official reports show. The metric treats all exports equally—but a country exporting oil (high value-to-weight, price-volatile) faces different risk than one exporting manufactures (diversified, stable). Additionally, the metric uses current-year exports and current-year debt service; if a country experiences a one-time export surge from a mining project or commodity boom, its ratio temporarily improves, masking structural unsustainability. Exchange rate movements distort the metric: a weak currency makes dollar-denominated debt service more expensive relative to exports measured in the local currency, creating artificial volatility. Furthermore, the metric does not distinguish between concessional debt (IMF/World Bank, typically long-term and low-interest) and commercial debt (expensive, short-term), so a country with cheap concessional debt may show high ratios while remaining sustainable, while another with expensive commercial debt may show lower ratios while being fragile. Finally, coverage is only 78.1% for 2024, meaning 25 countries lack recent data—many of which are fragile states where debt service reporting is weakest.

Methodology

Public and publicly guaranteed debt service (% of exports) is calculated as: (Public and publicly guaranteed debt service in current US)÷(Exportsofgoods,services,andprimaryincomeincurrentUS) ÷ (Exports of goods, services, and primary income in current US )÷(Exportsofgoods,services,andprimaryincomeincurrentUS) × 100. Debt service includes principal repayments and interest payments actually paid on long-term public external debt and long-term private debt guaranteed by the government. Exports of goods, services, and primary income includes merchandise exports, services (tourism, transportation, business services), and primary income (wages, dividends, royalties). Data comes from the World Bank World Development Indicators (indicator: DT.TDS.DPPG.XP.ZS), compiled from country debt reports, customs data, and IMF statistics. All figures are in current US dollars; the metric is not inflation-adjusted. The metric covers 114 countries with 100% data quality and 78.1% coverage for 2024 (89 countries report current data; 25 use 2023 or older figures). The mean debt-service-to-exports ratio is 7.96% with a standard deviation of 6.97%, indicating wide variation in debt sustainability across countries. Eighteen extreme outliers were detected (Angola, Argentina notably), reflecting countries with exceptionally high or volatile ratios. Year-over-year volatility averages 37.7%, substantially higher than most economic metrics, due to commodity price swings and exchange rate movements affecting both debt service obligations and export values. The 30,714.9% spread (from 0.19% to 57.20%) captures the full range from minimal debt burden to acute insolvency. Critically, this metric only accounts for public and publicly guaranteed debt; private external debt owed directly by corporations (not guaranteed by government) is excluded, so the true external debt service burden may be higher in countries with large private borrowing sectors.

Sources

• World Bank